Health Economics Modelling

Modelling is an essential part of health economic analyses. It is a central tool for authorities, experts and payers to support decision-making regarding healthcare resource utilization. With the help of modelling, fragmented research data, observations and experiences, as well as justified assumptions, are compiled into a synthesis that aims at anticipating and predicting the impact of healthcare interventions on individuals, patient groups, healthcare and the society. Modelling is also a manner of managing concern related to a specific phenomenon with sensitivity analyses. An ideal model not only responds to the decision maker’s question on the most likely outcome but also on the question concerning the likelihood of extreme scenarios and the credibility of the results. In its utmost general form, modelling relates to the cost-effectiveness of an intervention. This means that the costs – i.e. the use of healthcare resources (direct costs) and potential production losses (indirect costs) – are examined together with the health benefits of the intervention.